Consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Selected Recent Papers:
Holmes, T. J. and E. Singer, "Indivisibilities in Distribution," NBER Working Paper 24525, April 2018.
Holmes, T. J., E. R. McGrattan, and E. C. Prescott, "Quid Pro Quo: Technology Capital Transfers for Market Access in China,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol 82, No. 3 (2015): 1154-1193. DOI: (Patent data for paper)
Holmes, T. J. and J. J. Stevens, "An Alternative Theory of the Plant Size Distribution, with Geography and Intra- and International Trade,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 122, No. 2 (April 2014), pp. 369-421, (Web appendix with data and programs.)
Holmes, T. J. , W.T. Hsu, and S. Lee, "Allocative Efficiency, Mark-ups, and the Welfare Gains from Trade," Journal of International Economics, Vol 92, No. 2, (November 2014): 195-206. DOI:
Hsu, W.T., T.J. Holmes, and F. Morgan, "Optimal City Hierarchy: A Dynamic Programming Approach to Central Place Theory,” Journal of Economic Theory 154 (November 2014) 245-273. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2014.09.018 (Separate Appendix)
Thomas T.J. and H. Sieg, "Structural Estimation in Urban Economics," in Duranton, G., Henderson, J.V., Strange, W. (Eds.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, forthcoming.
Holmes, T. J. and J. J. Stevens, “Exports, Borders, Distance, and Plant Size,” Journal of International Economics, Sept 2012, 88(1): 91-103.
Holmes, T.J., “The Diffusion of Wal-Mart and Economies of Density,” Econometrica, Vol. 79, No. 1, January, 2011, 253-302. (Data for paper. Movie of store openings.)
Holmes, T. J. and L. E. Ohanian, "Pay with Promises or Pay as You Go? Lessons from the Death Spiral of Detroit," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report, July 2014 (see also corresponding Economic Policy Paper, "Paychecks or Promises, Lessons from the Death Spiral of Detroit," August 7, 2014)